SINGAPORE - Singapore’s climate targets have been categorised as “highly insufficient”, according to analysis from a global climate research consortium. The new rating is an improvement from its previous one of “critically insufficient”.
According to an assessment by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the country’s recent policy developments in clean energy have been promising, and its current 2030 emissions target is an improvement from the previous one.
But more can be done to help buck the trend on Singapore’s growing emissions.
This development comes after its national climate target was rated “critically insufficient” for two consecutive times, in 2021 and 2022.
The Republic currently has a target of reaching 60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, after peaking earlier, an improvement from its earlier target of peaking emissions at 65 million tonnes by 2030.
Its emissions are still on the rise now, and they will need to peak at a certain level by 2030, before going on a downward trajectory to reach net zero by 2050.
CAT noted that while the new target is an improvement, it is still at a much higher level compared with the pathway needed to keep the world on track towards its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. The world has already warmed by around 1.2 deg C.
“Singapore is already projected to overachieve its 2030 target, this makes a strong case for increasing ambition in its forthcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) update,” said the CAT website.
CAT is a collaboration between two Germany-based research organisations: Climate Analytics and the NewClimate Institute.
Countries are required to submit their next round of NDCs – otherwise known as their national climate targets – by 2025. Each NDC is expected to be more ambitious than the preceding target, and help the world get to net zero by 2050.
In response to queries from The Straits Times, a spokesman from the National Climate Change Secretariat said Singapore is an alternative energy disadvantaged country, with limited access to substantive decarbonisation solutions, like the large-scale deployment of cost-competitive renewable energy.
“We appreciate the CAT’s efforts to contextualise Singapore’s progress against our natural resource limitations and we will continue to advance efforts in meeting our 2030 climate targets,” said the spokesman.
Countries are given a rating for their climate action targets in five categories, ranging from “critically insufficient” to “1.5 deg C Paris Agreement compatible”.
According to the last time the CAT website was updated – in August 2024 – none of the 40 countries it assessed had targets that were compatible with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 deg C.
Countries such as Norway and Bhutan had climate targets that were “almost sufficient”, while the European Union, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States had targets that were “insufficient”.
Singapore is currently on track to meet its target of importing four gigawatts of “low-carbon” electricity by 2035, which is expected to meet approximately 30 per cent of its domestic electricity demand, noted CAT.
In addition, a Future Energy Fund with an initial $5 billion injection will be set up, to ensure funding for crucial infrastructure like subsea cables, that could help facilitate Singapore’s green energy transition.
Parallel to its clean energy developments, Singapore has also been doubling down on natural gas, which accounts for around 94 per cent of its electricity generation.
For instance, it has been expanding both its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as gas-fired generation capacity, to meet its growing electricity demand.
The Energy Market Authority has also anticipated for natural gas to constitute up to 50 per cent of Singapore’s electricity mix by 2035.
The Republic also has plans to become an LNG bunkering hub to meet the region’s growing gas demands.
“Fossil gas needs to rapidly decline and eventually be phased out with no new investments if we are to stay below the 1.5 deg C limit of the Paris Agreement,” said CAT.
It suggested that Singapore could further explore more energy-efficiency measures to temper the country’s rapidly growing electricity demand and pursue plans to become a regional hub for the storage, trade and transportation of green hydrogen.
It also pointed out that Singapore will need a much higher carbon tax to create the incentives needed for a large-scale switch to technology that does not produce any planet-warming carbon dioxide.
The Republic currently has a carbon tax of $25 per tonne, which was implemented in 2024, an increase from $5 per tonne since the tax was first administered in 2019. The tax covered some 80 per cent of total emissions in 2023.
The current tax rate will be in place till 2025, before increasing to $45 per tonne from 2026 to 2027, and eventually reaching $50 to $80 per tonne by 2030.
CAT also suggested that Singapore do more to double down on regional renewable energy collaboration and imports, and to increase finance and support for decarbonisation and clean energy in the region.
“While CAT’s modelled domestic pathways do not reflect Singapore’s particularly low domestic renewable energy potential, these pathways do reflect the rapid decarbonisation in the South-east Asian region that Singapore should follow, if not lead.”
NCCS said in response that Singapore will also continue to play its part to support regional decarbonisation; such as through the introduction of the Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership (FAST-P) platform which aims to raise US$5bn to fund climate action in Asia.
More recently, the International Energy Agency also announced the establishment of a Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore to bolster the region’s decarbonisation journey by scaling up the deployment of renewable energy technologies, cross-border power-trade and improving access to finance for clean energy investments.